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How we make the daily Go / Maybe / Skip call
Every lake and bay page has a daily Go, Maybe or Skip call, with the 1–3 reasons behind it. It's a quick read on whether conditions are friendly for a day on the water. It is not a prediction of how many fish you'll catch, and it doesn't replace your own judgment, the full forecast or any NWS warnings.
The call is worked out by simple rules from public data we already show on each page, and it's recomputed every time the site refreshes (about 4:30 AM, 12:30 PM and 4:30 PM Central). When we build before 3 PM it rates today; from 3 PM on it rates tomorrow. The day is always printed with the call.
Today's calls: 39 Go, 11 Maybe, 0 Skip, 0 No call, across 41 lakes and 9 bays.
How the call is decided
Each rule either raises a Skip flag, a Maybe flag, a caution note, or a plus. The worst flag wins: any Skip flag makes the call Skip, otherwise any Maybe flag makes it Maybe, otherwise it's Go. Caution notes are shown but don't change the call.
Lakes
| What we check | Source | Skip | Maybe | Note or plus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind (highest sustained speed in the forecast period) | NWS point forecast for the lake | 21+ mph | 16–20 mph | Light at 10 mph or less; breezy at 11–15 mph |
| Gusts (when NWS mentions them) | NWS point forecast | 35+ mph | 25–34 mph | – |
| Thunderstorms | NWS point forecast | Storms "likely", "severe" or "numerous", or any storms with a 60%+ rain chance | Any other chance of storms | "Slight chance" or "isolated" storms with under 30% rain chance: note |
| Rain | NWS point forecast | – | Rain 70%+ or "likely" | – |
| Level vs conservation pool | TWDB daily level | – | 10+ ft low (ramps likely limited, hazards near the surface), or 3+ ft above pool (parks or ramps may be closed, debris) | 3–10 ft low: "check ramps". Within 1 ft of pool: plus |
| 7-day level change | TWDB daily level | – | 2.0+ ft up or down (muddy water, debris, fish on the move) | 0.5+ ft: note. Under 0.5 ft: "steady", a plus |
Bays
| What we check | Source | Skip | Maybe | Note or plus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind (highest sustained speed in the forecast period) | NWS coastal waters forecast for the bay's zone | 21+ knots | 16–20 knots (for example "15 to 20 knots") | Light at 10 knots or less; breezy up to 15 knots |
| Gusts | NWS coastal waters forecast | 30+ knots | 25–29 knots | – |
| Advisories and bay waters | NWS coastal waters forecast | Small Craft Advisory, gale, storm or tropical wording, or "rough" bay waters | "Small craft should exercise caution" | – |
| Thunderstorms and rain | NWS coastal waters forecast | Same as lakes. The marine forecast rarely gives a percentage, so we go by the words: "likely" storms mean Skip, "a chance of" storms mean Maybe, "a slight chance" is a note, and "showers likely" is a Maybe. | ||
| Tide range for the day | NOAA tide predictions | – | – | 1.0+ ft: plus. Under 0.5 ft: note that wind will move water more than the tide. Shown but never changes the call, because many Texas bays have naturally small tides and still fish well. |
| Water temperature | NOAA water temperature station | – | – | Shown for context only |
Moving water (bay pages)
From the NOAA high and low tide predictions for each bay's station, we find the biggest predicted rise or fall between two turning points that overlaps daylight by at least 1 hour on the day we're rating, and print its times and size. If the whole day's predicted range is under 0.5 ft, the page says it's a weak tide day instead, because many Texas bays have small tides and wind then moves the water more than the tide does. Predictions are astronomical only. NOAA notes that wind, air pressure and river flow can push real water levels well away from them (NOAA Tides & Currents FAQ). We don't say which tide is better for which fish.
Recent rain and runoff (bay pages)
This line is informational only and never changes the call. We don't measure water clarity or salinity. The line says what the inputs below can do, using fixed thresholds, so you know when to expect fresher or dirtier water near river mouths and shorelines. The Texas Water Development Board's coastal hydrology page explains that rain over each bay's drainage basin runs off into rivers and reaches the bay. It also notes that USGS gauges sit upstream of the tidal reach, so runoff from ungauged land near the coast isn't counted in the river numbers.
| Input | Source | What we say |
|---|---|---|
| River flow into the bay (the 24-hour average, compared with the median daily flow for the same calendar date over the gauge's whole record) | USGS streamflow and daily statistics. Gauges: Sabine and Neches (Sabine Lake), Trinity (Galveston), Colorado and Lavaca (Matagorda), Guadalupe and San Antonio (San Antonio Bay), Mission and Aransas (Aransas & Copano), Nueces (Corpus Christi) | 5× normal or more: "well above normal, expect fresher, stained water" near that river's mouth. 2–5×: "above normal, fresher, stained water possible". Under 50% of normal: "below normal". A river is only called high if it's also running at least 100 cubic feet per second, because tiny creeks double easily. |
| Rain in the last 72 hours | Hourly airport weather station (ASOS) reports near the bay, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (Iowa State University). We only use a station that sent at least 90% of its hourly reports. If none did, we use Open-Meteo modeled rainfall and label it "modeled". | 1.0 in or more: "heavy recent rain: runoff can stain water near shorelines, creek mouths and drains". 0.25–1.0 in: "some recent rain". Less: "little or no recent rain". |
| Strong north wind in the last 48 hours | NDBC wind station for the bay | Wind from the northwest through northeast at 15+ knots, in at least 3 separate hours (any reading that hour): "strong north wind can push water out of the bay (levels below the predicted tide) and stir up shallow flats". |
The Laguna Madre bays (Upper Laguna Madre, Port Mansfield and South Padre) get little river water, so they show rain and wind only. If a source fails or its latest reading is too old, the page says "unavailable". All river data is provisional.
What we don't use yet, and why
- Barometric pressure. Neither the NWS lake forecasts nor the marine forecasts we pull include a pressure trend, so pressure isn't part of the call.
- Water temperature on lakes. We don't have a live water temperature source for most Texas reservoirs, so lake calls don't use it.
- Water temperature vs each species' comfort range. Our species guides give spawning temperatures, not reliable daily comfort ranges, so water temperature is shown on bay calls but never changes them.
- Fish activity, solunar tables and catch reports. The call is about conditions, not a promise of fish. Guide and reader reports are shown separately, in the words of the people who sent them.
- Advisories issued outside the forecast period. We read the forecast period for the day we're rating. Always check the NWS for current watches, warnings and advisories.
When there's no call
If the forecast or level we need is missing, out of date (lake forecasts over 18 hours old, lake levels over 7 days old, or a marine forecast more than a day old), or doesn't cover the day we're rating, the page says No call today and tells you which data is missing. We never fill in a guess.
Machine-readable version
Today's calls, reasons and lake levels are in /api/lakes.json, updated with each refresh. If you reuse them, please link back to the lake or bay page and note the date.
Questions or a call that looks wrong? Email hello@texaslakereport.com.